Real Estate Decarbonization: A Tool to Meet the Objectives of the Paris Agreement on Climate?

The Carbon Risk Real Estate Monitor (CRREM) project has developed a scientific tool to assess decarbonization pathways consistent with the objectives of the Paris Agreement on Climate.

CRREM

CRREM introduces a new dimension to the real estate sector, particularly for investors, asset managers, and fund managers, thanks to the tool's multi-functional capabilities, which:

  • Enables the definition of carbon targets based on a scientific methodology and aligned with the trajectory set by the Paris Agreement in 2015 (-2°C or -1.5°C). Each real estate asset typology has its own specific trajectory;
  • Analyzes across multiple scales: that of the building and that of the asset portfolio over a 2018-2050 timeframe.
  • Calculates reduction costs and proposes a work schedule to reduce the carbon footprint.
  • Identifies assets facing environmental obsolescence.
  • Helps respond to other reporting requirements, including the TCFD (Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures) and the EU Taxonomy for sustainable finance.

This Excel-based tool is available free of charge (https://www.crrem.eu/tool/) and is user-friendly. 

The CRREM Principles

The Decarbonization Trajectory

CRREM has a very simple functionality: to produce, without requiring user data input, a graph and a table of values for the 2018-2050 decarbonization trajectory (-1.5°C or -2°C) for a country and for a building typology. The values are provided in carbon intensity (kgCO2e/m²/year).

Example of a 2°C carbon trajectory (Country: France; Typology: Office)

Users have the ability to study their trajectories for all European Union countries and for a multitude of typologies: office, retail, warehouse, logistics, distribution, hotel, hospital, residential, leisure, data center.

How were the targets calculated?

To produce decarbonization trajectories, CRREM employs a downscaling process comprising 3 steps:

The three steps for defining typical decarbonization pathways

  1. From the global 'carbon budget' to the European Union (EU) budget: CRREM uses data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and applies recognized climate models (e.g., Rockström et al., 2017) to calculate the decarbonization efforts required by all EU member countries.
  2. From the EU budget to the target budget for the EU real estate sector and at the country level: CRREM uses data from various EU databases and is based on the Sectoral Decarbonization Approach (SDA), a methodology recognized by the Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi).
  3. From sector and country to target budget by typology : CRREM estimates target trajectories by country and by typology (see fig.). This downscaling process considers the number of buildings per sector, anticipated growth, and the current carbon emission intensity for each country and typology.

How to analyze this decarbonization trajectory by country and typology?

The principle remains the same: how does the current trajectory of the studied building compare to the reference decarbonization trajectory? Is it below or above?

If the studied trajectory is above the reference trajectory, it implies that the asset is facing not only environmental but also economic obsolescence. Indeed, such an asset would be increasingly exposed to the risk of economic obsolescence due to climate change, as it would fail to meet future regulatory efficiency standards or market expectations. It would become less marketable and require costly renovation measures.

Example of a French office building's positioning relative to the reference decarbonization pathway

Example of a French office building's positioning relative to the reference decarbonization pathway

How to anticipate the environmental, and thus economic, obsolescence of a real estate asset?

Once the building's baseline has been defined, the second objective is to model this trajectory over time to prevent the asset from falling into environmental obsolescence. By projecting the baseline against the CRREM curve, we can anticipate this as follows:

Example of a building entering obsolescence in 2029 relative to the CRREM 1.5°C trajectory

Thus, the projection of carbon emissions highlights the building's obsolescence starting from 2029. Leveraging our expertise acquired since 2008 across over 25 million m² of building areas, our work involves quantifying energy savings and avoided emissions associated with each action or work scenario.

Once this list of energy and environmental actions is defined for each asset, we can phase the work on each operational building. Beyond the environmental aspect, several factors allow us to phase these works:

  • Equipment end-of-life
  • Making a unit available following a user's departure
  • A comprehensive asset enhancement strategy
  • The strategy of an Asset Manager, Investor, or Portfolio Manager

Thus, referring back to our previous example, we sought to model and then phase the works as follows:

  • Phase 1: To begin, significant savings were achieved by reinforcing the building's insulation. As the boilers were installed in 2010, their remaining lifespan did not warrant premature removal.
  • Phase 2: After a depreciation period for these substantial works, which also helped defer the building's obsolescence, we had no alternative but to switch heating sources from gas to the local urban network.
  • Phase 3: Finally, the chiller units were replaced to eliminate refrigerant fluid leaks on site.

 

This provides the following graphical example:

Fig. 4 Example of a building with an anticipated carbon trajectory

Example of a building with an anticipated carbon trajectory

Consequently, our expertise enables the Asset Manager to quantify these actions financially, energetically, and environmentally, assisting them in developing their short, medium, and long-term strategy.

How to anticipate the environmental obsolescence of a real estate portfolio?

At the portfolio level, we compile data from all buildings within the scope and then annually disseminate the achievement of the CRREM objective.

This information allows for the comparison of two real estate portfolios across several scales:

  • Choice of Climate Target: 1.5°C / 2°C
  • Choice of Scale: By number of buildings / m² / Financial value

The green section represents assets complying with the climate target; from the example above, we can deduce that:

  • Portfolio 1 is not managed, with an increasing number of assets facing climate obsolescence;
  • Portfolio 2 is managed according to the defined renovation strategy, with an increasing number of assets complying with CRREM.

In this manner, a combined top-down and bottom-up strategy can be implemented between the Investor and the Asset Manager to reassess the environmental performance of certain assets.

Our Expertise as Seen by Our Clients: Allianz Real Estate

Allianz Real Estate, a member of the UN-Convened Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance, aims for carbon neutrality by 2050. Sinteo has supported us for over 5 years in implementing this strategy concerning environmental aspects with our tenants. By notably organizing environmental committees with them, Sinteo facilitates discussions on energy consumption and environmental actions. Three years ago, we took an additional step by adopting a building-centric approach in anticipation of what was then the future Tertiary Decree. Finally, this year we are complementing our actions within a long-term environmental strategy for all our real estate assets, specifically to anticipate the climate obsolescence of our buildings. Indeed, the renovation decisions made today will have an impact for decades, making it crucial for all of us to be aware of these major issues. Furthermore, our portfolio of "Prime" buildings includes Haussmannian properties with a rich history but not always suited to a low-carbon strategy. We have therefore defined a package of energy actions for each asset based on its specificity, managed by the Asset Manager, which allows us, through graphical representation, to directly monitor the impact of our decisions. Lastly, we can also engage with our Investors regarding the current state of their portfolio and jointly project its climate obsolescence.